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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals:
CPO Price and 2nd Half 2016 - CPO price outlook : Fundamental vs Technical view
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By: Ms. Ivy Ng
Ivy Ng is currently the Regional Head of Plantations and Head of Malaysia Research in CIMB. She is a CFA charterholder and holds a BSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. She has been covering the palm oil sector since the mid-90s and expanded her coverage to include the regional palm oil companies since 2005.
She joined CIMB in 2005 and currently covers regional plantations and conglomerates. Ivy has been an investment analyst since 1994, with prior stints in Affin-UOB, Peregrine Research, Hwang-DBS Securities and GK Goh Research.
Ivy was ranked number one by Asiamoney polls in the Malaysian industrial sector in 2014 to 2016 and utilities sector in 2007 and 2008. She was also voted Malaysia’s best power analyst in 2007 and best plantation analyst in 2008 by The Edge. VIEW PROFILE
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In our paper, we analyse the prospects for CPO price in 2nd half of the year 2016 using both fundamental and technical analysis. From a fundamental perspective, we are of the view that the key factors that will be driving CPO price in 2nd half are:
(1) Chinese demand;
(2) palm oil yields;
(3) Biodiesel demand in Indonesia and Malaysia; and
(4) US soybean crops.
We project CPO price to weaken in 3rd quarter before recovering in late 4th quarter and average RM2,400 per tonne for 2nd half of 2016. This is lower than the 1st half of 2016's average of RM2,517 per tonne. On the technical view, we see CPO trading in a sideways to higher in the coming months.
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| Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals |
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| Archives |
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MITIGATING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET UNCERTAINTIES
Nov 14, '22 ~ Nov 18, '22 |
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ASSESSING 2022: MANAGING OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS
Mar 28, '22 ~ Apr 01, '22 |
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Section 2: Opportunities for Palm Oil in Asian Market
Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Oils & Fats Supply, Demand and Outlook
Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Price Direction
Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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Section 2 : Special Focus on the US
Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS
Jun 22, '20 ~ Jun 28, '20 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend
Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Opportunities
Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Special Focus
Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend
Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Special Focus - India
Feb 25, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend
Feb 18, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus
Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend
Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 2 : Global Palm Oil Market Focus
Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend
Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 2: Regional Focus : CIS Countries
Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 1: Palm Oil Price Fundamentals
Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities
Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1: Price Directions
Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals
Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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Section 2 : Trade Issues and Market Prospects
Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices
Feb 22, '16 ~ Feb 29, '16 |
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Second Half 2015 - Anticipating Market Price Direction
Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Special Focus: Indian Sub-Continent
Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Opportunities, Challenges And Trend In 2015 CPO Price
Feb 23, '15 ~ Mar 01, '15 |
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2nd Half 2014: Market Challenges, Predictions And Directions
Aug 25, '14 ~ Aug 31, '14 |
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Anticipating 2014 Palm Oil Price Direction
Feb 17, '14 ~ Feb 24, '14 |
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Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations
Jul 22, '13 ~ Jul 29, '13 |
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Mapping The Palm Oil Price - 2013 Market Perspective
Feb 18, '13 ~ Feb 27, '13 |
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Palm Oil : Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Market Directions
Aug 06, '12 ~ Aug 17, '12 |
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges
Feb 13, '12 ~ Feb 20, '12 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Price Trend
Aug 08, '11 ~ Aug 16, '11 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Price Direction
Feb 07, '11 ~ Feb 17, '11 |
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2010 Year End Prospects - What Lies Ahead?
Aug 02, '10 ~ Aug 08, '10 |
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Dear Ikhwan, Thanks for the question. We are forecasting CPO prices to average RM2,450 per tonne in 2016 and RM2,600 per tonne for 2017.
8 years ago