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POINTERS 2014 MPOC
Palm Oil Internet Seminar
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend:
2018 CPO Price Trend Amidst Changing Global Oils and Fats Scenario
By: Dr. Sathia Varqa

Dr. Sathia Varqa is the owner and co-founder of Palm Oil Analytics (POA), an online publisher of palm oil daily news, price, data and analysis based in Singapore, serving global commodity markets. POA publishes two daily reports a day covering price assessments analysis of key data and market commentary. Sathia has been in the commodity information business for over 20 years, and owns POA together with a veteran palm oil broker with over 30 years’ experience. Sathia previously worked for S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global (previously McGraw-Hill Finance) based in Singapore. He holds a BA (Business Studies), Master degree in International Trade (Distinction) and a PhD in political economy from The Robert Gordon University, Aberdeen, Scotland.
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The fundamental factor animating palm market in 2017 is low production underpinned by low yields, against high expectation of rebound in post El-Nino. Production did not rise, expectations were not met but our understanding of the market got better and deeper than the previous year. An understanding that prices are governed not just by supply, demand, weather and sentiment variables, but also by the notion that markets are highly complex and can be irrational at times. 2018 is another year of expectation of higher production from lackluster levels seen in 2017, while prices are predicted to bounce higher from current levels supported by improvement in export market. Will 2018 be better than 2017? While this optimistic expectations are valid, there are challenges ahead in 2018; sustainability, tariff and non-tariff barriers, competition from soybean oil, uninspiring biodiesel market and weakness in export are some of them. This presentation will look into the prospects and challenges for the palm market in 2018.


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Questions & Answers (1) :
Anthony Yap
10 months ago
Hi Dr Sathia; on Page 40; China stock on 22/1/2018 already hits 700k++. What was the highers number recorded before? If 700k is at the high; will it impacted Malaysia export after Lunar New Year? thanks
Sathia Varqa:
Hi Anthony, Thanks for your question. Latest Chinese palm oil stocks are near 700K, at 653K. The highest volume is usually peaks in May. In May 2017 it was 645K in May 2016 it was 692K. In 2018 Jan we are already near 700K, so I think China will slowdown buying now, despite the Lunar New Year.
10 months ago
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