POINTERS 2014 MPOC
Palm Oil Internet Seminar
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend:
Malaysia's Palm Oil Supply and Demand Outlook for 2020
Dr. Ahmad Parveez Bin Ghulam Kadir

Dr. Ahmad Parveez is currently the Director General of Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), effective 10th August 2019. He was appointed as Fellow of Academy Science Malaysia in 2016 and Member of National Biosafety Board (2018 – 2021). He sits on various other Boards; Board of Trustee of Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC, 2019 -2020), Board of Trustee of Malaysian Palm Oil Certification Council (MPOCC, 2019 - 2021) and Board of Trustee of Institute of Malaysian Plantation and Commodities (IMPAC). Dr. Ahmad Parveez was previously the Chairman of Genetic Modification Advisory Committee under the National Biosafety Board (GMAC, 2010 – 2018). He is also very active in various professional societies including as the President of International Society for Oil Palm Breeders (ISOPB) and Chairman of American Oil Chemists’ Society (AOCS) Asian Section.

Dr. Ahmad Parveez was born in Taiping, Perak and obtained his secondary education at Sekolah Menengah King Edward VII, Taiping. He graduated with Bachelor of Science (UKM) in Genetics, Master of Science (UKM) in Molecular Genetics and a PhD (UPM) in Plant Genetic Engineering. He has 31 years of experience in Plant Molecular Biology, Genetic Engineering and Biosafety. He developed world first transgenic oil palm in 1997. His interest is in genetic modification of oil palm and biosafety of living modified organisms.

He has obtained a number of prestigious awards both locally and internationally. He has 15 patents filed and six of them have been granted. He has authored and co-authored more than 80 papers in refereed journals and more than 250 conference papers.


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Ms. Fauziah Arshad

Fauziah Arshad is currently the Director of Economics and Industry Development Division, Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). She started her career in 1988 at the Ministry of Health Malaysia (MOH) and later joined the Palm Oil Research Institute of Malaysia (PORIM) in 1995 now the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) after the merger with the Palm Oil Registration and Licensing Authority (PORLA) in May 2000. She was again seconded to the MOH for two years from 2011-2013 as Deputy Director of Standards and Codex.

Fauziah Arshad obtained her Bachelor’s degree in Food Science and Nutrition from the National University of Malaysia (UKM) and her Masters in Engineering Science from the University of Malaya (UM). She has wide experience in the areas of food safety and quality having served in the Food Safety and Quality Division of the MOH prior coming to MPOB. While at MOH and at MPOB, she is heavily involved in the development of international standards in the works of the Codex Alimentarius Commission and the Codex Committees particularly in relation to oils and fats and food safety and quality. Apart from that, she is also experienced in the technical promotional activities of palm oil and palm oil products and providing technical advisory services during her stint in the Technical Advisory Services Unit of MPOB. Prior to her current position, she headed the Sustainability and Socio-Economic Research Group working in the area of sustainability and socio-economics aspects of the Malaysian Oil Palm Industry.


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The year 2019 has been a better year for the Malaysian oil palm industry as compared to that of in the previous year. In 2019, improvements have been recorded in many key performance indicators such as crude palm oil (CPO) production, exports and palm oil stocks. In addition, palm oil price in the second half of 2019 has shown an impressive recovery, with December 2019 registered the highest price since March 2017. Overall in 2019, CPO production recorded an increase by 1.8% to 19.86 million tonnes as against 19.52 million tonnes recorded in 2018, attributable to improved productivity, both in fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production and CPO production. The FFB yield recorded an increase of 0.1% to 17.18 tonnes per hectare while oil extraction rate (OER) increased by 1.3% to 20.21%. In the global scenario, the wider CPO price discount as against its major competing oils in 2019, coupled with the supported market situation in the importing countries particularly in India, China and the EU had boosted exports of palm products, especially palm oil, palm kernel oil and biodiesel. All in all, total exports of oil palm products in 2019 were higher by 12.0%, amounting to 27.86 million tonnes as compared to 24.88 million tonnes exported in 2018. However, the weaker palm oil prices in the first half of 2019 had somewhat affected palm oil export revenue in 2019. Export revenue of total palm products for 2019 was at RM64.84 billion, lower by 4.0% as against RM67.52 billion in 2018. In line with the excellent export performance, closing stocks in December 2019 was down by 37.6% to 2.01 million tonnes vis-à-vis 3.22 million tonnes recorded in 2018. For the year 2020, Malaysian palm oil industry is forecast to perform better primarily driven by the expected firmer palm oil prices with palm oil demand is expected to remain stable to generate higher export revenue for the palm oil industry in 2020.


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Questions & Answers (10) :
Hafiz
3 months ago
Hi there, from your conclusion there is prediction to a better financial year for the industry. However with the recent development in the market such as Indian restiriction on palm oil import from Malaysia, China low demand and EU campaign against palm oil - how much will it impact the industry palyer? Has these factors already taken into the account in your conclusion? Thanks
POINTERS SECRETARIAT:
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : At the point of writing this slides and report, we have taken into account the palm oil issues in India and EU. Other factors that we also took into account were the marginal palm oil production growth both in Malaysia and Indonesia, the implementation of B30 in Indonesia and B20 in Malaysia, the African swine fever in China and the US-China trade war. However, the conclusion did not take into account the possible impact of the Covid-19 into palm oil demand since the issue was not that prominent during the time of writing. Now that Covid-19 has become a global issue, it might give some impact to Malaysian palm oil demand. However the magnitude of the impact is still depending on the scale of the impact to the global economy, especially to the Malaysian palm oil importing countries.
3 months ago
Tey Poh Leng
3 months ago
What is the breakdown figures for Palm Kernel been imported by exporting countries to Malaysia?
POINTERS SECRETARIAT:
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : In total, imports of palm kernel in 2019 amounted to 71,994 tonnes, of which, 62.6% or 45,088 tonnes were from Indonesia while the remaining were coming from Thailand, Papua New Guinea and Cambodia.
3 months ago
Tey Poh Leng
3 months ago
Page 6: Export of CPKO in 2019 surged by 17.6%; is the waiver of Export duty of CPKO will be continued?
POINTERS SECRETARIAT:
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : The current CPKO and RBD PKO export duty exemption will take effect until 30th June 2020. The export duty will be reinstated beginning 1st July 2020.
3 months ago
Anthony Yap
3 months ago
a) Imports of Palm Oil increased by 16.1% to 0.98 mil mt (Refer to Page 2); can you break from the quantity from each exporting countries to Malaysia and also the Crude Palm Kernel Oils or (RBD PKO).
POINTERS SECRETARIAT:
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : Indonesia remained as the major source of imports of oil palm products in 2019. From the total 977,131 tonnes of palm oil imports, 934,188 tonnes or 95.6% were from Indonesia. Meanwhile, 174,073 tonnes or 76.2% of 258,925 tonnes of palm kernel oil were sourced from Indonesia. Other exporting countries of palm products include Thailand, Papua New Guinea and Cambodia.
3 months ago
Anthony Yap
3 months ago
As the ongoing tension within Malaysia -India related to Palm Oil. It was reported that Pakistan will increase their import or usage of Malaysia Palm Oil. What is the realistic figures that Pakistan can increase their import (in 2019 : 1.09 Million MT only) in order to substitute losses of market shares in India? How the industry players to increase palm oil export to Pakistan?
POINTERS SECRETARIAT:
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : The loss of market share in India is to be substituted by the increase in intake by many other importing countries, not only Pakistan as Malaysian palm oil is destined to more than 160 countries. As for Pakistan, Prime Minister of Pakistan during his visit to Malaysia on Feb 2020, has pledged to import more palm oil from Malaysia, following India’s decision to restrict imports of refined palm oil from Malaysia. Exports of Malaysian palm oil to Pakistan for Jan 2020 grew by 90,142 tonnes or 2.1 fold to 170,802 tonnes from 80,660 tonnes in Jan 2019. In general, Malaysian palm oil exports are performing well by looking at Jan 2020 stock figure of 1.76 million tonnes.
3 months ago
HCLeow
3 months ago
How many hectares replanted in 2019? With the reduction in fertilisers and the replanting in Sabah, is Malaysia still able to delivery positive production growth? What is MPOB expectation on FFB yield and OER for 2020? Thank you.
POINTERS SECRETARIAT:
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : From the total 5,900,157 hectare of oil palm planted area in 2019, 120,862 hectares has been replanted or 2.0% from the total area. Sabah shows an increase of replanting activities of 10,254 hectares or 33.4% to 40,984 hectares in 2019 from 30,730 hectares in 2018. However the increase in replanting activities does not affect the production prospect of oil palm industry in 2020 due to the small scale of replanting activities (only 2.0%) and it only applies to unproductive oil palm trees which do not contribute significantly to oil palm production. As for the fertiliser application, we believe the increase in palm oil price in the second half of 2019 could improve the issue of fertiliser application in oil palm plantation. Thus, we are expecting that the positive result could be seen especially in the second half of 2020 where palm oil production in 2020 is expected to perform better as compared to that of in 2019. We are expecting that the FFB yield and OER performance in 2020 will be slightly better than that of in 2019.
3 months ago
MOHD RAFIZAN BIN SAMIAN
3 months ago
It is interesting to see the different trend in FFB production for 2018 and 2019. The lowest FFB output in 2018 was in June but for 2019, it happened in Dec. Is the FFB production trend changes each year?
POINTERS SECRETARIAT:
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : The low FFB yield in June 2018 was due to Festive Raya Celebration season in which estates are having issues of labour shortages to harvest the fruits, whereby the low FFB yield in Dec 2019 was due to the flash flood occurred in several states in Malaysia such as Kelantan, Terengganu and Johor which disrupted the harvesting activities, affecting the FFB yield performances. In general, the FFB yield shows the same movement trend each year.
3 months ago
MOHD RAFIZAN BIN SAMIAN
3 months ago
Is there any specific reason(s) for the declined of import from the Philippine and Pakistan?
POINTERS SECRETARIAT:
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : Exports of Malaysian palm oil to the Philippines declined by 8.7% to 0.63 million tonnes in 2019 due to ample supply availability of domestic coconut oil for consumption arising from higher production of coconut oil by 3.4% to 1.15 million tonnes in 2019 from 1.11 million tonnes in 2018. Meanwhile, exports of palm oil to Pakistan declined by 6.5% from 1.16 million tonnes in 2018 due to higher imports of soyabean from Brazil for crushing by 21.0% to 779,000 tonnes during January-November 2019 from 644,000 tonnes in January-November 2018.
3 months ago
Mohd Feroize
3 months ago
Can you please explain Bangladesh market. With a reported population of around 164 million, it only imports 9,468 MT from Malaysia. What actually is the issue there?
POINTERS SECRETARIAT:
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : Exports of Malaysian palm oil to Bangladesh in 2019 was 150,612 tonnes while exports of palm kernel oil was 9,486 tonnes. Indonesia is the major exporter of palm oil to Bangladesh, taking more than 80% of palm oil market share in the country. Malaysia’s exports of palm oil to Bangladesh in 2019 was down by 51.9% y-o-y partly attributed to significantly higher exports to India (up by 1.90 million tonnes or 75.4%).
3 months ago
Mohd Feroize
3 months ago
Your figures show that Malaysian planted area increased in 2019. This indicates that there are new land available for old palm cultivation. Can you explain the source of the new land? Where can those land be found in Malaysia? Please explain why Sabah planted area fell in 2019?
POINTERS SECRETARIAT:
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : The increased planted area in 2019 does not necessarily indicate that new land was cleared for oil palm cultivation. It could be coming from the conversion of other agriculture land of other commodity to oil palm cultivation. Planted area in Sabah fell due to replanting activity of 40,984 hectares in 2019 from 30,730 hectares in 2018, an increase of 10,254 hectares or 33.4%.
3 months ago
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