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Mapping The Palm Oil Price - 2013 Market Perspective:
Impact of Palm Oil Supply and Demand on Palm Oil Price Behaviour
Mr. Ayat K. Ab Rahman
Ayat. K. Ab Rahman, graduated from the Northern University of Malaysia (UUM) with a Bachelor of Economics (Hons), majoring in an econometric in 2002. He continued with his further studies in Master of Economics (Econometric) from the National University of Malaysia and graduated in 2004. He is currently Senior Research Officer in the Techno-Economic Unit of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). He specialises in the area of econometric modeling, forecasting, cash flow analysis, and smallholder development with 9 years of experience in the palm oil industry.
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The paper highlights the impact of price behaviour on Malaysian palm oil supply and demand and discusses its impact in 2013. The price of CPO is dependent on a lot of factors that varies according to time. CPO price behaviour is determined by fundamental factors i.e. both supply and demand factors in the world market. Besides that, CPO price is also dependent on the market sentiments factor which is unpredictable, e.g. the extreme weather phenomenon, political crisis, new policies or regulations and the impact of natural disasters. In 2012, CPO price behaviour was affected negatively by a combination of both supply and demand factors. From the supply perspective, the CPO stock build-up arising from high carry-over stocks at the beginning of the year and an increase in CPO production had contributed to the CPO price bearishness. Meanwhile, weaker export demand from major importing countries, like China, P.R. and India has become a significant factor in contributing to the decline in CPO prices in 2012. The introduction of Malaysia’s new CPO export tax structure effective 1st January 2013 is likely to result in an increase in palm oil exports and thus, indirectly reduce the high palm oil stock levels in the country. Meanwhile, the B5 programme is to be expanded throughout Malaysia, which will also reduce the level of palm oil stock availability in the country in 2013. Besides that, the Malaysian palm oil supply growth in 2013 is expected to increase marginally due to the introduction of the oil palm replanting scheme with an allocation of RM100 million. The scheme is expected to see the replanting of 100,000 hectares of unproductive palms and palms over the age of 25 years. These scenarios will indeed be a positive indication for the firming of CPO prices in the market place in 2013.
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