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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS
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ORGANIZED BY:
Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations:
New Fundamentals to Watch for the 2nd Half 2013
Ms. Khor Yu Leng
Ms Khor Yu Leng, B.A. (Oxon), M.Sc. (Econs). Yu Leng graduated from Oxford University in Philosophy, Politics & Economics and has a masters degree from the London School of Economics. She started her career as a corporate analyst and worked in the financial industry for various companies and clients including Citigroup. Since 2004, she has been a research specialist on resource-based industries and agribusiness, with a focus on palm oil and sugarcane in Asia and frontier markets. Her work for global corporate clients encompasses market research, political-economic analysis, and sustainability. Recent project assignments include reviews of the China edible oil refining and oleochemicals sectors, frontier oil palm projects in Africa, cane sugar projects in Indonesian Papua, and info briefs on resource sectors and infrastructure in Myanmar. She is also the writer of Khor Reports’ newsletters on palm oil and the political economy. Contact Yu Leng at Segi Enam Advisors Pte Ltd, Singapore. email: khorreports@gmail.com
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This paper examines three new fundamental drivers that are likely to impact prices achieved by plantations. First, there are shifts in price risk management approaches with the greater use of derivatives. This is expected to result in a wider dispersion of price outcomes. The review of CPO average selling prices achieved has become of greater interest to analysts, especially with varying volume growth and the presence of newer and more aggressive players. Secondly, prices achieved are also impacted by duty and tariff differentials, which are still prominent policy tools in the midst of growing trade tussles. Finally, the behaviour of non-traditional physical traders and their imputed impact on stocks build up in key markets is also a feature of the palm oil market that can add uncertainty. There has been prominent news about some traditional fundamentals of market supply and demand. These include juxtapositions of mooted Indonesia land bank restrictions and promised growth in frontier areas, as well as opportunity afforded by transfats limits versus saturated fats restrictions. We expect that these are longer-term in impact.
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