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2nd Half 2014: Market Challenges, Predictions And Directions:
Global Oils and Fats Outlook
Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Yusof Basiron
TAN SRI DATUK DR. YUSOF BIN BASIRON aged 66, a Malaysian. He is presently holding several important positions which include: i. Chief Executive Officer of Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) ii. Director of Sime Darby Berhad iii. Chairman and Director of CBIP Berhad Apart from holding distinguished corporate positions, he is also involved in other organizations which are: (i) Senior Fellow and Past President of Academy Sciences Malaysia (ASM) (ii) Fellow member of Malaysia Scientific Association (MSA) (iii) Fellow member of Malaysian Oil Scientists' and Technologists' Association (MOSTA) (iv) Fellow member of the Incorporated Society of Planters His notable academic achievements are as follows: i. In 1972, he obtained his Bachelor in Chemical Engineering Degree from the University of Canterbury, New Zealand; ii. In 1974, he obtained his Post-Graduate Degree in Rubber Technology (ANCRT) in the United Kingdom; and iii. In 1976, he obtained his Masters Degree in Engineering specializing in Industrial Management (M.E.) and also in Business Administration (MBA) from the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium. Before he joined Palm Oil Research Institute of Malaysia (PORIM) in 1979, he held the position of Rubber Technologist/Techno-Economist with the Rubber Research Institute (RRI)/Malaysian Rubber Research Development Board (MRRDB). In 1986, he completed his doctorate with a PhD in Applied Economics and Management Science from the University of Stirling, Scotland. He was later appointed as the Director-General of PORIM in 1992. He held the position for 8 years until April 2000 before assuming the role of the Director-General of Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), an organization which existed as a result of a PORIM and Palm Oil Registration and Licensing Authority (PORLA) merger, from 1 May 2000 until 18 January 2006.
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The total global oils & fats production in 2013 was recorded at 189.9 million MT compared to the 187.5 million MT produced in 2012 which is an increase of 1.28%. For 2014, the global oils and fats production is likely to see a slightly higher production of about 192 million MT. In this year, palm oil again will be the leader in global oils and fats production but the increase will be moderate due to the El-Nino effects in the producing countries.

Palm oil production in 2013 was recorded at 56.21 million MT, compared to 53.88 million MT in 2012, an increase of 4.3%. For the year 2014, we forecast that palm oil production from these two countries will be over 58 million MT, which contributes to 85% of the total global palm oil production. The palm oil production from both countries contributes to 25% of the total global oils & fats production.

The price of crude palm oil in the beginning of 2014 was RM2,534/MT and fluctuated erratically reaching a high of RM2,862/MT in March and going to a low of RM2,436/MT in June. Among the reasons for the upward trend was the lower production and stocks in the first quarter of 2014 while the downward trend was influenced by the concerns over the higher than expected production in the second half of 2014 of other oils such as soybean oil which will invariably affect palm oil prices. However, demand by major consumers such as India, China, Pakistan and the USA is expected to increase which will keep price of palm oil stable.

This paper will highlight and analyse issues that have so far affected global oils & fats particularly palm oil price as we head into the second half of the year. We will conduct regional analysis on the demand and supply scenarios. These will be aggregated at the global level to forecast the demand and supply balance in 2014.

We use the Stock Usage Ratio (SUR) as our basis to determine the demand and price forecasts as it is a useful indicator to measure the amount of surplus in stock that can be carried forward from the preceding year, thus indicating the supply situation carried forward for the current year and the likely trend in prices.
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