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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend
24 Feb - 01 Mar 2020
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS
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Section 1: Palm Oil Price Fundamentals:
CPO Price Trend in the 2nd Half of 2017 - Technical and Fundamental Views
Ms. Ivy Ng
Ivy Ng is currently the Regional Head of Plantations and Head of Malaysia Research in CIMB. She is a CFA charterholder and holds a BSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. She has been covering the palm oil sector since the mid-90s and expanded her coverage to include the regional palm oil companies since 2005. She joined CIMB in 2005 and currently covers regional plantations and conglomerates. Ivy has been an investment analyst since 1994, with prior stints in Affin-UOB, Peregrine Research, Hwang-DBS Securities and GK Goh Research. Ivy was ranked number one by Asiamoney polls in the Malaysian industrial sector in 2014 to 2016 and utilities sector in 2007 and 2008. She was also voted Malaysia’s best power analyst in 2007 and best plantation analyst in 2008 by The Edge.
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This paper will discuss the various factors that are expected to influence CPO price direction and in turn palm oil trades for 2H17. We will also provide our technical view on CPO price directions.

In 1H2017, CPO price fell 20% to RM2,601 per tonne as palm oil supply recovers from the El Nino effect.

However, there are differing view as to whether the CPO price will be sustainable at current level in 2H17, when palm oil supply rebounds on the back of higher FFB yields.

The main bullish factors for prices continue to be the low stockpiles and higher biodiesel mandates in Indonesia.

Factors currently capping CPO price upsides are expectations of stronger palm oil supplies in 2H17 and competition from other edible oils.
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