Section 1: CPO Price Trend:
Development in G3 Soybean Production and CPO Price Outlook for 2018
Mr. Oscar Tjakra
Oscar Tjakra is the Executive Director, RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness. He is located in Singapore, and focuses on palm oil and grains and oilseeds sector.
Oscar was previously a RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness Analyst with Singapore branch from July 2008 to October 2010 covering various sectors including grains and oilseeds, sugar, cocoa and animal protein.
In his most recent role, he was Senior Vice President of Freight Research with Oldendorff Carriers Singapore, where he led global supply and demand research of the grains & oilseeds sector.
Oscar holds a Master of Science in Applied Finance from Singapore Management University and Bachelor of Engineering (Hons) from Nanyang Technological University.
Global soybean markets have the potential to behave very unpredictably in 2018, with several key drivers of potential price volatility. Global biodiesel policy, feed demand growth, and increasing global trade are likely to be mildly supportive prices in 2018 as global balance sheets contracts, particularly in major exporter surpluses. Despite our view of a slight YOY reduction in global ending stocks, global soybean prices in 2018 are expected to be capped by historically high inventory.
Meanwhile, Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil yields are expected to normalize in 2018. This coupled with an increase in mature palm oil plantation areas in both countries, will result in rising global palm oil production, providing downward pressure to prices in 2018. In addition, global soft oil supplies in 2018 are expected to be record high, on the back of large soybean, rapeseed and sunflower seed crops across major producing countries. Availability of these soft oils will provide competition for palm oil demand and curb palm oil price rallies.
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