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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges:
Crude, Palm Oil Prices and Stock: The Links and Implications
Dr. Fatimah Mohamed Arshad & Amna Awad Abdel Hameed
A professor at the Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malasyia, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad started working with the faculty in 1980. Currently she is the Director of the Institut Kajian Dasar Pertanian dan Makanan (or Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies). She obtained her doctoral degree in Agricultural Marketing from the University of Newcastle upon-Tyne, UK. She has taught courses on agricultural marketing, marketing research and research methodology both at the undergraduate and graduate levels. She was the Coordinator of the Centre for Agricultural Policy Studies, UPM in 1987-88 and 1991. She was the President of the Malaysian Agricultural Economics Association for 1998-2001 and has been the Associate Editor and later Chief Editor of the Malaysian Journal of Agricultural Economics (1992 – 1997). She is a member of the reviewer board of the International Journal of Agribusiness and Food Marketing (1993 – todate). She is an associate editor of the Asean Food Journal and Journal of International Society for Southeast Asian Agricultural Sciences since 2002. She was appointed as a committee member of the National Advisory Panel on Malaysian Agricultural Development, Ministry of Agriculture and Agrobased Industries, Malaysia (2008-2010). She is the Chairperson, FAMA-IHLs (Federal Agricultural Marketing Authority and Institution of Higher Learnings) Research Collaboration Committee. She is also a member of the Programme Advisory Committee to Malaysian Palm Oil Board (2010-2012). She has been actively involved in providing inputs to the Malaysian national agricultural policy (NAP) formulation (which include NAP I, NAP II, NAP III and the recent Dasar Agro-Makanan Negara). Her research topics and consultancies include supply chain of agricultural produce, padi and rice marketing, fish distribution and pricing system, agricultural policy and development, price analysis and forecasting and commodity marketing (palm oil, cocoa and pepper) and palm oil futures trading. Has received research grants from various sources. International sources include: International Development Research Centre (IDRC, Canada), The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), The International Center for Living and Aquatic Resources Management (ICLARM) (Manila), Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) , Agricultural Marketing Agencies in Asia and the Pacific (AFMA), Tropical Fruit Network (TFNet) and Instituto de Estudos do Comércio e Negociações Internacionais (ICONE). Local sources include: Kuala Lumpur Commodity Exchange (currently MDEX), Ministry of Agriculture and Agro-based Industries, Economic Planning Unit (EPU), Bank Rakyat, Federal Agricultural Marketing Authority (FAMA), Fisheries Development Authority of Malaysia (LKIM), Lembaga Padi dan Beras Negara (currently BERNAS), Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), Bank Rakyat, MIMOS and others. Has received Best Paper Award conferred by the International Management Development Association and Haworth Press in 1994 for her paper titled "Price Discovery through Crude Palm Oil Futures: An Economic Evaluation," Best ICT Paper Award from TELEKOM Malaysia and Universiti Putra Malaysia for paper titled "Online Survey on Consumer Attitudes towards E-Commerce: Observations and Methodological Issues." Received Excellent Service awards from UPM (1994 and 2006) and also a number of medals from Universiti Putra Malaysia for her research projects. She has received the “Consultant of the Year (2007) Award” from the Business Research Centre, Universiti Putra Malaysia for her excellent contribution in consultancy work to selected public and private agencies. Also, she has received Anugerah Putra (2010) from UPM for academic excellence.
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This paper reviews the nature of links or relationships between crude, palm oil prices and stocks and its short term implications on the palm oil price trend in 2012. An econometric method is used to empirically forecast the palm oil price movements in the year 2012 using monthly historical data over the period of January 2002 to December 2011. A single equation model using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) procedure was estimated to achieve the stated objective. The results provide a strong evidence of long-run equilibrium relation between crude palm oil price, its stock level and the crude oil prices. The study uses the findings to provide projections for the palm oil prices during 2012.
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