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Second Half 2015 - Anticipating Market Price Direction:
Global Oils & Fats Outlook 2015
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By: Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Yusof Basiron
TAN SRI DATUK DR. YUSOF BIN BASIRON aged 66, a Malaysian.
He is presently holding several important positions which include:
i. Chief Executive Officer of Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC)
ii. Director of Sime Darby Berhad
iii. Chairman and Director of CBIP Berhad
Apart from holding distinguished corporate positions, he is also involved in other organizations which are:
(i) Senior Fellow and Past President of Academy Sciences Malaysia (ASM)
(ii) Fellow member of Malaysia Scientific Association (MSA)
(iii) Fellow member of Malaysian Oil Scientists' and Technologists' Association (MOSTA)
(iv) Fellow member of the Incorporated Society of Planters
His notable academic achievements are as follows:
i. In 1972, he obtained his Bachelor in Chemical Engineering Degree from the University of Canterbury, New Zealand;
ii. In 1974, he obtained his Post-Graduate Degree in Rubber Technology (ANCRT) in the United Kingdom; and
iii. In 1976, he obtained his Masters Degree in Engineering specializing in Industrial Management (M.E.) and also in Business Administration (MBA) from the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium.
Before he joined Palm Oil Research Institute of Malaysia (PORIM) in 1979, he held the position of Rubber Technologist/Techno-Economist with the Rubber Research Institute (RRI)/Malaysian Rubber Research Development Board (MRRDB).
In 1986, he completed his doctorate with a PhD in Applied Economics and Management Science from the University of Stirling, Scotland. He was later appointed as the Director-General of PORIM in 1992. He held the position for 8 years until April 2000 before assuming the role of the Director-General of Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), an organization which existed as a result of a PORIM and Palm Oil Registration and Licensing Authority (PORLA) merger, from 1 May 2000 until 18 January 2006.
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As we had earlier predicted, the global oils and fats production in 2014 exceeded 200 million MT and for the year 2015, we forecast that the global oils & fats production will likely surpass 205 million MT. Driven by favourable weather the oils and fats production globally will again be led by palm oil which is poised to exceed 61 million MT and will play a crucial role in the global supply of oils and fats.
As the two top palm oil producing countries contributing to 85% of the global palm oil production, Malaysia and Indonesia will be the focus of the international oils and fats trade. With 30% of the global oils and fats production coming from Malaysia and Indonesia, the role played by both countries is vital in forecasting palm oil price.
For the first six months of this year, palm oil prices have fluctuated between RM2,150 and RM2,350/MT. The fall in crude mineral oil price during this period impacted the price of not only palm oil but also other edible oils such as soybean and sunflower oils. These are among some of the issues that will be highlighted in this paper.
This paper will analyse issues that will affect palm oil price in 2015 such as demand and supply analysis and we will also take into account the influence of the current drop in crude oil price on palm oil price especially in the first half of this year. Demand for palm oil from major consuming countries such as India, China, EU and USA is nevertheless, expected to remain upbeat and we will take these factors into account. The regional analysis on the demand and supply scenarios will be aggregated at the global level to forecast the price, demand and supply balance in 2015.
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Second Half 2015 - Anticipating Market Price Direction |
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Archives |
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MITIGATING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET UNCERTAINTIES Nov 14, '22 ~ Nov 18, '22 |
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ASSESSING 2022: MANAGING OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS Mar 28, '22 ~ Apr 01, '22 |
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Section 2: Opportunities for Palm Oil in Asian Market Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Oils & Fats Supply, Demand and Outlook Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Price Direction Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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Section 2 : Special Focus on the US Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS Jun 22, '20 ~ Jun 28, '20 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Opportunities Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Special Focus Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Special Focus - India Feb 25, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Feb 18, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 2 : Global Palm Oil Market Focus Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 2: Regional Focus : CIS Countries Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 1: Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1: Price Directions Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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Section 2 : Trade Issues and Market Prospects Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices Feb 22, '16 ~ Feb 29, '16 |
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Second Half 2015 - Anticipating Market Price Direction Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Special Focus: Indian Sub-Continent Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Opportunities, Challenges And Trend In 2015 CPO Price Feb 23, '15 ~ Mar 01, '15 |
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2nd Half 2014: Market Challenges, Predictions And Directions Aug 25, '14 ~ Aug 31, '14 |
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Anticipating 2014 Palm Oil Price Direction Feb 17, '14 ~ Feb 24, '14 |
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Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations Jul 22, '13 ~ Jul 29, '13 |
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Mapping The Palm Oil Price - 2013 Market Perspective Feb 18, '13 ~ Feb 27, '13 |
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Palm Oil : Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Market Directions Aug 06, '12 ~ Aug 17, '12 |
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges Feb 13, '12 ~ Feb 20, '12 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Price Trend Aug 08, '11 ~ Aug 16, '11 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Price Direction Feb 07, '11 ~ Feb 17, '11 |
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2010 Year End Prospects - What Lies Ahead? Aug 02, '10 ~ Aug 08, '10 |
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Effect of floods at the end of 2014 has already been included in the production forecast (not significant) and the effect of El Nino if it occurs in 2015, on the production cycle of the oil palm will be felt only late this year or mostly next year.
9 years ago
The Egyptian ration scheme no longer restricts the use of palm olein in the subsidized scheme. Eligible recipients of the food subsidy system can use their 'smart cart' to buy cooking oil which may contain palm olein blended with other oils. Such blends are already popular in the Egyptian market.
9 years ago
Thank you for your reply Tan Sri.
9 years ago
New Zealand has been importing about 20,000 tonnes of palm oil per year in the past. Obviously palm oil can be used in the New Zealand market which is rather small. Palm oil can be used in solid fat products such as margarine and shotenings as this will eliminate the use of undesirable trans fats
9 years ago
Thank you for your information Tan Sri. As what I know about New Zealand, the public is strongly against deforestation and palm oil had taken into the account. Is this the major resistance that stop palm oil from widely used in New Zealand?
9 years ago
Palm oil is used widely in the EU, USA and Australia even though there are those opposed to its use because of allegations on deforestation. The deforestation allegation is not backed by facts if relative areas occupied by other oil crops are compared. Usually, palm oil is not used as a liquid cooking oil in cold climates, and that could be its limitation in penetrating the small NZ market (also costly shipment cost).
9 years ago
Thank you for your infos Tan Sri.
9 years ago