POINTERS: Indonesia Palm Oil Industry: Current State and Outlook 2018

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Questions & Answers (8) :

Sam Yen

6 years ago

Do you have a regional breakdown of palm oil production and domestic consumption by regions ie. Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Lesser Sunda, Sulawesi, Maluku, Papua?

Fadhil Hasan:
We have data breakdown on regional basis on production, but no consumption (except data on cooking oil consumption). You can have that through Directorate General of Estate Crips, Minsitry of Agriculture.
6 years ago

gus Lim

6 years ago

What is the local consumption of palm oil in Indonesia per month. In Malaysia we take 250,000 metric tons as an estimate. Indonesia with a population of 220 - 230 million people, do you think local consumption is over 800,000 metric ton per month.

Fadhil Hasan:
Local consumption per month in Indonesia in 2017 vary from 821,000 tonnes (lowest) to 978, 000 tonnes (hihest). But average is 922,000 tonnes and the total consumption per year is 11,064 million tonnes.
6 years ago

gus Lim

6 years ago

What you do think Indonesian exports will be for the year 2018. Can we see expect to see exports of 35 million for palm and laurics combined.

Fadhil Hasan:
Combined (palm and lauric oils) export in 2018 is ex[ected to be higher compared with 2017 asssuming that price of CPO is reatively same. With that, we we expect expor to reach around 34-35 million tonnes. In 2017 export reached 32 million tonnes.
6 years ago

Fadhil Hasan

6 years ago

We estimate that production of CPO in 2018 will reach 38.5 million tonnes, production of 40 million tonnes will be raexched in 2018 which is one year earlier than we targeted. The raeson for this is that we are now in three years cycles of production after experiencing El Nino in 2015 we have la Nina 2016 and 2017, so that we expect production to continuously increase in 2017 and 2018 considerably. However, Indonesia also launch replanting program starting in 2017, and in 2018 the target is to replant around 185 thousand hecatres. This will affect production in 2018 and in the following years.

gus Lim

6 years ago

Will production of crude palm oil in Indonesia go up to 40 million metric tons in 2018. Please advise

Fadhil Hasan:
We estimate that production of CPO in 2018 will reach 38.5 million tonnes, production of 40 million tonnes will be raexched in 2018 which is one year earlier than we targeted. The raeson for this is that we are now in three years cycles of production after experiencing El Nino in 2015 we have la Nina 2016 and 2017, so that we expect production to continuously increase in 2017 and 2018 considerably. However, Indonesia also launch replanting program starting in 2017, and in 2018 the target is to replant around 185 thousand hecatres. This will affect production in 2018 and in the following years.
6 years ago

gus Lim

6 years ago

Will the moratorium on palm oil concession announced by the Indonesian President in May 2017, have major impact on curbing Indonesia production in 2018?

Fadhil Hasan:
The moratorium started in 2011 and extended up to now. In fact, now government will issue another decree on moratorium for 3 years up to 2021. So far, we saw that moratorium has impacts on the new area expansion especially for the firms. We do not exactly know the precise number, but we can proxy the impact by looking at the number of seed sales that has been declining in the recent years from around 172 millions seed in 2017 to only 76 millions in 2017. The declining of new area expansions that reflected in number of seed sold is dues among others by moratorium.
6 years ago

Guo Gengcun

6 years ago

Dear Mr. Mohd Fadhil, can you share more on the consumption of palm oil within Indonesia for 2017 as well as your forecast on the domestic demand for palm in 2018. Thank you.

Fadhil Hasan:
Domestic consumption in 2017 amounted to 11 million tonnes consist of biodiesel, cooking oil, oleochemical and others. While we expect that in 2018 will increase to around 12.5 milion tonnes if provided that mandatory biodiesel for non-Public Service Obligation (PSO) be implemented. Otherwise, the increase in domestic consumption will only increase slightly.
6 years ago

Sathia Varqa

6 years ago

Dear Mr. Mohd Fadhil Hasan, Thank you for your presentation. What specific measures have the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries taken on price, tax harmonization and sustainability? Thank you, SV

Fadhil Hasan:
So far CPOPC is working in harmonization of sustainability standard between Indonesia (ISPO) and Malaysia (MSPO). This in turns is expected to provide modality for establishing international sustainability scheme for palm oil. What I understand CPOPC is successful in harmonizing principles of ISPO and MSPO, and is still working on the detail related to criteria and indicators. As for, price and tax harmonization, CPOPC does not touch that issues specifically. However, CPOPC has division policy and strategy with the objective of stabilizing prices through other measures.
6 years ago