POINTERS: Global Oils and Fats Outlook

The contribution of CPO by palm oil producers in Malaysia and Indonesia to the total production of vegetable oils in the world has increased considerably in the past several years. Similarly, the contributions of other vegetable oils producers around the world are also equally important. We utilise our model based on: Beginning stocks + Production + Net import = Ending Stocks +Consumption, which will give the Stock Usage Ratio (SUR) and will be the basis to determine the demand and price forecast. The SUR is also a useful indicator to measure the amount of surplus in stock that can be carried forward to the next year, thus determining the number of days or months the surplus will be able to support the population based on current demand.

We forecast that although demand from certain regions may actually decline, the shortfall will be made up from other traditionally strong consumption regions, especially in Asia Pacific and Middle East. New markets in the African continent will also spur the demand for 2011. Production is also forecasted to increase due to higher yields projected due to better weather conditions.

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Questions & Answers (7) :

13 years ago

Siew Yook Meng - Thank you for your question.When computing the figures projected/indicated, we have also taken into consideration the possible factors mentioned by your good self. These factors may have an influencing impact on production and yield, but it would be minimal, As with any planters and harvesters in most plantation companies, when prices are high, they will make every effort to maximize, with the least possible interruption during harvesting, to collect the loose fruits and efficiently transported it for processing. We have also taken for in consideration the higher yield of OER coming out from Sabah and Sarawak, up by about 2% higher than that of Peninsula Malaysia. It was reported in the news recently that some RM33 million were lost through illegal harvesting. Bases on this projected lost, it translates to less than 1% of total production.

Siew Yook Meng

13 years ago

Hi Faudzy, your projection of 2011 CPO production for Malaysia is 18.1 mln Mt, which is based on the yield factor of 4.1 T/ha for 4.41 mln ha. Not sure if you have taken into account of crop loss due to: (a). Labour constraint whereby loose fruits are not collected on time or not at all; harvesting rounds extended far beyond the ideal periods resulting in over-ripe crop & thus loss of oil; etc. (b). wet weather hampering recovery of loose fruits and timely evacuation of crop. (c). Land disputes, especially in Sarawak whereby natives are preventing harvesting or are harvesting fruits not according to standards leading to non-optinal oil yield. If these do have an impact on production, what would be the percentage of this loss in relatiion to the year's total producton?

Siew Yook Meng

13 years ago

IA Jude- Thank you for reminding me..I have responded via your email address

Siew Yook Meng

13 years ago

Vimal Baheti - Thank you for your question. What happens in the US economy does have a global economic impact on other nations. The recent US economy slowdown resulted in the plummeting of the global equity market and the general selling of commodities due to fresh concern of the US debt problems. Invariably we will see some panic selling of stocks and commodities by investors, but nevertheless it also represent an opportunity for securing favorable stocks and commodities at reduced value. The market will correct itself and price will stabilize in due course, while demand for oils and fats will continue to grow against the backdrop of an increase in global population growth, and in the usage for food and non food sectors.

Vimal Baheti

13 years ago

Sir, what is the effect of US Economy's slowdown in our markets. VIMAL BAHETI Indore, India

IA Jude

13 years ago

cant download this presentation

IA Jude

13 years ago

Morning Faudzy, Good to read your presentation again. i had requested istance from you for weeks as part of your promise to ist up coming farmer with your knowledge at the Sandton seminar and never got a response from you. why?