Section 1: Price Direction:
Global Palm Oil S&D Forecast for 1st Half 2021
Dato' Dr. Hj. Wan Zawawi Wan Ismail
Dato’ Dr. Wan Zawawi bin Wan Ismail is currently the Chief Executive Officer of Malaysian Palm Oil Council. Prior to this, he was the General Manager for Kelantan Utilities Mubarakan Sdn Bhd in 2020. He had held many positions in Kelantan State Economic Development Corporation before he became the Group CEO of the organization in 2014. Dato’ Wan also currently serves as the Director for Amanah Ikhtiar Malaysia Sdn Bhd and PMBK Sawit Sdn Bhd and is on the Board of Trustees for Yayasan Darul Naim.
In 2016, he was awarded with Darjah Kebesaran Kelantan which carries the title Dato’. He has also received the Certificate of Excellence from Ministry of Education in 2010 and Master Trainer Certificate in 2009.
Dato’ Wan Zawawi Wan Ismail has a PhD Extension Education (Community Resource Development) which he received from University Putra Malaysia in 2017. He also has a Master’s degree in Human Resource Management which he completed in 2001 from the same university.
Dato’ Wan is a result driven CEO with over 10 years of experience in leading and enhancing growth and revenue in a number of different corporations in various industries. His main objective has been facilitating change and human capital development in ensuring optimum performance of the organization.
As we approach the 2nd quarter of 2021, we have seen the global economy slowly but surely staging a recovery from the events of the previous year. There are positive signs that the economic activities would resume but subject to adhering to new norms as a result of the global pandemic. The dynamics of business has shifted from physical to virtual and many countries adapted to this new norm.
In reviewing the global economic performance of 2020, it could be best described as a year like no other before. Economic growth slowed down, beset by low commodities prices and this situation was further exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic which halted most economic activities. However, as the saying goes, every cloud has a silver lining and this was seen in the recovery of palm oil prices at the latter end of the year. The global economy slowly adapted to the challenges and demand gradually picked up. This is reflected in the rise in palm oil prices to close the year at RM3,600/MT and this upward trend in palm oil prices is expected to continue at least until the second half of 2021.
We anticipate that 2021 will see a continuous recovery both in the global economy and oils and fats prices. There will be production growth recovery among all types of oils & fats while demand will also continue to increase in tandem. Oils and fats production globally will again be led by palm oil which will play a crucial role in the global supply of oils and fats. As the two top palm oil producing countries contributing to 85% of the global palm oil production, Malaysia and Indonesia will be the focus of the international oils and fats trade. With 30% of the global oils and fats production coming from Malaysia and Indonesia, the role played by both countries is vital in forecasting palm oil price.
We will analyse regional issues that will affect palm oil price in 2021 and we will also take into account the influence of the other competing oils especially in the first half of this year. Demand for palm oil from major consuming countries is expected to remain upbeat and we will take these factors into account. The regional analysis on the demand and supply scenarios will be aggregated at the global level to forecast the price in 2021.
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