ASSESSING 2022: MANAGING OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS:
2022 Key Trends and Palm Oil Market Direction
Wan Aishah binti Wan Hamid
Puan Wan Aishah binti Wan Hamid was appointed as the Chief Executive Officer, Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) on 1 November 2021.
She started her career at IBM World Trade Corporation, Malaysia and later worked at several international computer companies before moving into the telecommunication and aviation industry at the beginning of the wave of privatization in Malaysia.
She was involved in the formation of mobile telecommunication infrastructure from the analog era into the digital era as well as the acquisition of spectrum allocation from International Telecommunication Union for Malaysia. Through the mergers and acquisitions of companies within the group, both domestically and abroad, she was appointed on most of the Board of companies of which several were listed on Bursa Malaysia such as Technology Resources Industries Berhad, Malaysian Airline System Berhad, Naluri Berhad and Orbcomm Global, L.P. listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange in the USA. She was one of the earliest corporate executives involved in the formation of the Malaysian Industry-Government Group for High Technology (MIGHT). After leaving the corporate world, she is now actively involved in the private businesses, which include being a financial consultant and guest speaker. She is a former member of PRIMA Corporation from October 2020 until December 2021.
Puan Wan Aishah holds a Master in Business Administration (Investment) and Bachelor of Science (Finance) from Southern Illinois University, USA.
After almost two years since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy has seen a gradual recovery and is poised to stage a robust recovery in 2022. Global economic growth is expected to accelerate this year, largely on the strength of higher consumer spending in major economies.
Demand for vegetable oils has seen a growth in tandem with the economic recovery but supply disruptions has seen vegetable oil prices has increasing to record high levels especially over the past six months. The geo-political instability in Eastern Europe has resulted in increasing crude mineral oil prices and this has also pushed up vegetable oils prices and coupled with inflation rates are taking their toll on consumption of food and other commodities. World stocks of vegetable oils were slightly below the year-ago level and insufficient production is seen keeping stocks low.
Palm oil prices have skyrocketed in February 2022 and established new record highs, supported by current low stocks and lower than expected production in the two predominant producing countries. The Indonesian government’s decision to monitor exports and domestic supplies of palm oil was the latest in a series of chain reactions and the upward trend in palm oil prices is expected to continue at least until the third quarter of 2022.
We anticipate that 2022 will see a continuous recovery both in the global economy and oils and fats prices. There will be production growth recovery among all types of oils and fats while demand will also continue to increase in tandem. Oils and fats production globally will again be led by palm oil which will play a crucial role in the global supply of oils and fats. As the two top palm oil producing countries contributing to 85% of the global palm oil production, Malaysia and Indonesia will be the focus of the international oils and fats trade. With 30% of the global oils and fats production coming from Malaysia and Indonesia, the role played by both countries is vital in forecasting palm oil price.
We will analyse recent issues that will affect palm oil price in 2022 and we will also take into account the influence of the other competing oils especially in the first half of this year. Demand for palm oil from major consuming countries is expected to remain upbeat and we will take these factors into account. The regional analysis on the demand and supply scenarios will be aggregated at the global level to forecast the price in 2022.
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