Section 1: CPO Price Trend:
China - Outlook for Palm Oil with Higher Soyabean Import Expected in 2018
Mr. Cai Neng Bin
He is the General Manager of Shanghai Pansun Company. His roles and responsibilities in the company are analyzing oilseeds and oils and fats market information, with main emphasis given on systematic data analysis and make judgement on market trading pattern. He is also able to gauge the change of medium to long market trends of agricultural products, and provides trading and hedging strategies through capturing price differences arises from logical error within markets, and between different products and months.
In the context of lower growth of G3 soybean output forecasted in 2017/18, soybean prices for this marketing year will be rather firmer as compared to 2016/17. Nevertheless, due to the continuous strong demand for soybean meal in China, import of soybean in China will increase further and estimated up to 99 million MT in 2017/18. At the same time, soybean oil import remains stable but overall share of soybean oil against total vegetable oil supply in China for coming year will continue to increase to more than 50%, while rapeseed oil supply is expected to drop due to the drawdown of state reserve and also drop in domestic rapeseed output. With total inelastic palm oil demand estimated at 4.8 to 5.0 million MT, import of palm oil in 2017/18 will be stable with marginal growth on some market share vacated by rapeseed oil due to the drop in supply. Higher import of palm oil could be witnessed if growth in total oils & fats consumption growth in higher as stock level of palm oil in China has returned to normal.
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