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MITIGATING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET UNCERTAINTIES:
China's Palm Oil Market Outlook in 2023
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By: Dr Wang Jun
Doctor of Economics, post-doctoral in management, commentator of the futures market for CCTV Financial Channel and the Voice of Central Radio, China Certified Public Accountant, intermediate technical expert of Founder Group, Dean of Research Institute of Founder CIFCO Futures CO., Ltd. and managing director of Investment Consulting Department.
He has 20 years of experience in commodity spot companies, futures exchanges and futures companies. He has been engaged in futures-spot research in Dalian Commodity Exchange, COFCO Corporation (COFCO) and Beijing CIFCO Futures. He was awarded the 2010-2019 Excellent Macro Analyst Award, the 2017 Excellent Precious Metal Analyst Award, and the 2012-2016 Excellent Non-ferrous Metal Analyst Award by Shanghai Futures Exchange. Senior Analyst at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2020-2021. He has won the Best Macro Strategy Analyst Award, Black Industry Chain Futures Analyst Award and Financial Futures Analyst Award from 2011 to 2020 by Futures Daily - Securities Times. Best Commodity Analyst of the Year 2019 by Shanghai China Business News. He is also a member of Research and Development Committee of China Futures Industry Association, a member of Futures Series Review Committee of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and a member of Academic Committee of R&D Center of Dalian Commodity Exchange.
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The topic mainly includes the following four parts: the first part is a review of the spot price trend of palm oil in China, reviewing the driving factors of palm oil price trend in each stage. The second part is to analyze the current situation of palm oil industry chain in China. The third part analyzes the current situation of domestic palm oil supply and demand, including import and export, consumption status and the impact of the epidemic on palm oil consumption. The fourth part looks forward to the development direction and price trend of China's palm oil industry in the future.
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MITIGATING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET UNCERTAINTIES |
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Archives |
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MITIGATING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET UNCERTAINTIES Nov 14, '22 ~ Nov 18, '22 |
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ASSESSING 2022: MANAGING OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS Mar 28, '22 ~ Apr 01, '22 |
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Section 2: Opportunities for Palm Oil in Asian Market Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Oils & Fats Supply, Demand and Outlook Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Price Direction Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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Section 2 : Special Focus on the US Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS Jun 22, '20 ~ Jun 28, '20 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Opportunities Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Special Focus Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Special Focus - India Feb 25, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Feb 18, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 2 : Global Palm Oil Market Focus Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 2: Regional Focus : CIS Countries Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 1: Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1: Price Directions Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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Section 2 : Trade Issues and Market Prospects Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices Feb 22, '16 ~ Feb 29, '16 |
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Second Half 2015 - Anticipating Market Price Direction Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Special Focus: Indian Sub-Continent Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Opportunities, Challenges And Trend In 2015 CPO Price Feb 23, '15 ~ Mar 01, '15 |
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2nd Half 2014: Market Challenges, Predictions And Directions Aug 25, '14 ~ Aug 31, '14 |
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Anticipating 2014 Palm Oil Price Direction Feb 17, '14 ~ Feb 24, '14 |
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Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations Jul 22, '13 ~ Jul 29, '13 |
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Mapping The Palm Oil Price - 2013 Market Perspective Feb 18, '13 ~ Feb 27, '13 |
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Palm Oil : Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Market Directions Aug 06, '12 ~ Aug 17, '12 |
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges Feb 13, '12 ~ Feb 20, '12 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Price Trend Aug 08, '11 ~ Aug 16, '11 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Price Direction Feb 07, '11 ~ Feb 17, '11 |
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2010 Year End Prospects - What Lies Ahead? Aug 02, '10 ~ Aug 08, '10 |
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China's epidemic prevention and control policies are constantly being optimized. Up to now, China has not announced when to end the dynamic zero clearing epidemic prevention and control policies. The specific contents shall be subject to the external release of the Chinese government.
1 year ago
The Presidents of the two countries signed the Action Plan for Strengthening the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (2022-2026), the "the Belt and Road" cooperation plan, and cooperation documents in economic and trade cooperation, digital economy, vocational education, medicinal plants and other fields. According to the official announcement, the actual purchase quantity and time of palm oil have not been announced.
1 year ago
Import tariff is 9%, VAT is 9%
1 year ago
The devaluation of the RMB has increased the cost of China's palm oil imports, which has a negative impact on China's palm oil imports, but the impact is not significant. Because the import quantity of palm oil depends more on the performance price ratio of palm oil, that is, whether palm oil has a price difference advantage compared with soybean oil.
1 year ago
The second paragraph of Article 8 of the Measures for the Administration of the Import of Solid Wastes stipulates that "it is prohibited to import solid wastes for the purpose of heat recovery". According to the regulations, wood chips, palm shells and other wood and cork wastes used for combustion are solid wastes that are prohibited from import in China.
1 year ago
not included
1 year ago
1、The industrial uses of palm oil in China mainly fall into two categories: one is directly obtained from palm oil, such as soap, epoxy palm oil and its polyols, polyurethane and polyacrylate products; The other is oil chemical products, such as fatty acids, esters, fatty alcohols, nitrogenous compounds and glycerol. On the basis of these products, various derivative products can also be produced by different chemical methods. 2、China's biodiesel is mainly exported to EU. 3、From the perspective of market segments, the export market of biodiesel has the fastest growth. From January to August 2022, China's export of raw firewood increased 46% year on year.
1 year ago
From the perspective of the price difference between oils and fats, palm oil has a high-cost performance ratio, which is conducive to the increase of the proportion of palm oil consumption. At present, China's palm oil storage is relatively high, but the overall oil storage is at a seasonal low level. The peak oil consumption season of New Year's Day and Spring Festival is approaching, and China still has a demand for oil replenishment. The short-term import rhythm is determined by the import profits of palm oil.
1 year ago
1. China still has import demand for palm oil. First, the peak oil consumption season of New Year's Day and Spring Festival is approaching. Second, the stocks of soybean oil and vegetable oil are low. Third, palm oil has a high-cost performance ratio. 2. The details of the agreement signed between China and the Indonesian government have not been released yet, and the actual situation needs to be officially announced. 3. The homogeneity of palm oil products is strong. China's purchase of palm oil products is mainly based on price factors and supply stability. With price advantages, sustainable and stable suppliers will gain greater market share.
1 year ago
As China's economy continues to recover, plant oil consumption in tourism and catering industry is expected to show a restorative growth. In addition, the peak stock season of New Year's Day and Spring Festival has decreased, and the short-term plant oil consumption is more likely to improve. At present, the price performance of palm oil is higher than that of soybean oil. The better demand for plant oil in China will support the consumption and price of palm oil. However, the increase of palm oil price needs to be observed from November to next February.
1 year ago