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POINTERS 2014 MPOC
Palm Oil Internet Seminar
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Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Price Trend:
Weather Effects on Palm Oil Production: Supply Outlook 2011 and Price Trends
By: Mr. Ling Ah Hong

Mr. Ling graduated from the University of Malaya with a Bachelor of Agricultural Science (Honors). He has more than 40 years of experience in research and management of plantation crops and companies. He was a former Executive Director of IJM Plantations and his other past positions include: Research Officer with FELDA, Senior Agronomist in Dunlop Estates (now part of IOI Corporation), Plantation Controller of Perlis Plantations (now part of Wilmar International), Chief Operating Officer for Hap Seng Plantations. Mr. Ling has authored and co-authored numerous publications on oil palm and cocoa in Malaysia. He is also a frequent speaker at international conferences and seminars organized by Bursa Malaysia, GAPKI, MPOC, MPOB and investment banks. He is currently the Director and Principal Consultant of Ganling Sdn Bhd, a Malaysian-based company focusing on plantation research, consulting and investments. GANLING specializes in weather-based palm oil forecasting, benchmarking and productivity improvement programs and performance analysis of plantation companies. Ganling is a consultant to a number of listed oil palm companies and banks in Malaysia and South East Asia and also an associate to LMC International, London, in the publication of: Oil Palm Quarterly Report – Indonesia and Malaysia.
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The effects of adverse weather conditions in recent years on palm oil production and global supply were analysed.

Palm oil production in 2010 was significantly affected by adverse weather conditions in 2009 and 2010. The El Nino from June 2009 to April 2010 resulted in prolonged dry weather conditions in Indonesia and Malaysia (world's major producers) which in turn resulted in significantly lower palm oil supply to the world in 2010. Malaysia suffered a decline in production (year on year) while Indonesia registered significantly lower production growth. The supply situation was further aggravated by the La Nina event (from July 2010 to April 2011) - resulting heavy rainfall in the last Q 2010 and flooding in 2011.

Palm oil production in both Indonesia and Malaysia have seen some recovery in the 1st half of 2011. Will the production recovery be sustained? Will the lagged effects of the last El Nino and La Nina events again affect palm oil production in the 2nd half 2011? What will be the supply prospect of palm oil in the 2nd half of 2011 and its likely impact on prices?


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