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Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations:
Supply and Demand Outlook of Palm and Laurics Oils for 2nd Half 2013
Mr. Thomas Mielke
Thomas Mielke is Executive Director of ISTA Mielke GmbH in Hamburg (Germany), OIL WORLD, a leading research organization that provides global supply, demand and price analyses, statistics and forecasts for all the major oilseeds, vegetable oils & animal fats and oilmeals as well as for biodiesel and livestock products with clients in 100 countries. He is a frequent speaker at conferences and workshops all over the world. Thomas Mielke joined the OIL WORLD team in the mid-1970s, after studying economics. He is a member of the Programme Advisory Committee of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board and is giving lectures at the University of Hamburg (TUHH). In 2014 Thomas Mielke received a Lifetime Excellence Award of the Malaysian industry in recognition of his contributions and commitments. OIL WORLD was founded in 1958 and is recognized worldwide as a leading independent, authoritative and unbiased information provider. The WEEKLY and daily FLASH reports can be obtained from www.oilworld.de and also an OIL WORLD report in Mandarin is released 2 times a week.
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In his presentation Thomas Mielke will highlight latest OIL WORLD forecasts of supply & demand not only of palm and lauric oils but also for the competing soybean oil, rapeseed oil and other oils & fats worldwide. The global dependence on palm oil has increased significantly during the past several years owing to insufficient production of soya oil and other oils & fats. In the 10 years until Oct/Sept 2012/13 world production of palm oil doubled to almost 56 Mn T. In Oct/Sept 2012/13 palm oil had to fill the gap created by the shortfall in world production of all the other 16 oils & fats, which showed a combined decline by two million tonnes from a year earlier. As a result, world exports of palm oil are likely to reach a record 44 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2012/13, while exports of palmkernel oil are going to increase to 3.5 Mn T, a combined 4 Mn T more than a year earlier. Both oils will thus account for as much as 62% of world exports of all 17 oils & fats compared with 53% ten years ago.

Stocks of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia declined substantially by at least a combined 2.0 Mn T from the peak registered in December 2012. Therefore, the ampleness of supplies has disappeared for the time being, allowing palm oil prices to recover from their lows.

Thomas Mielke will also highlight the prospective pronounced increase in world production and export supplies of soybean oil in the 2013/14 season and will discuss to what extent this will affect demand for and prices of palm oil in the months ahead.
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