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05 - 11 Apr 2021
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS
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POINTERS
ORGANIZED BY:
Opportunities, Challenges And Trend In 2015 CPO Price:
Global Oils and Fats Outlook 2015
Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Yusof Basiron
TAN SRI DATUK DR. YUSOF BIN BASIRON aged 66, a Malaysian. He is presently holding several important positions which include: i. Chief Executive Officer of Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) ii. Director of Sime Darby Berhad iii. Chairman and Director of CBIP Berhad Apart from holding distinguished corporate positions, he is also involved in other organizations which are: (i) Senior Fellow and Past President of Academy Sciences Malaysia (ASM) (ii) Fellow member of Malaysia Scientific Association (MSA) (iii) Fellow member of Malaysian Oil Scientists' and Technologists' Association (MOSTA) (iv) Fellow member of the Incorporated Society of Planters His notable academic achievements are as follows: i. In 1972, he obtained his Bachelor in Chemical Engineering Degree from the University of Canterbury, New Zealand; ii. In 1974, he obtained his Post-Graduate Degree in Rubber Technology (ANCRT) in the United Kingdom; and iii. In 1976, he obtained his Masters Degree in Engineering specializing in Industrial Management (M.E.) and also in Business Administration (MBA) from the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium. Before he joined Palm Oil Research Institute of Malaysia (PORIM) in 1979, he held the position of Rubber Technologist/Techno-Economist with the Rubber Research Institute (RRI)/Malaysian Rubber Research Development Board (MRRDB). In 1986, he completed his doctorate with a PhD in Applied Economics and Management Science from the University of Stirling, Scotland. He was later appointed as the Director-General of PORIM in 1992. He held the position for 8 years until April 2000 before assuming the role of the Director-General of Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), an organization which existed as a result of a PORIM and Palm Oil Registration and Licensing Authority (PORLA) merger, from 1 May 2000 until 18 January 2006.
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For the year 2015, we forecast that the global oils & fats production will for the first time exceed 200 million MT driven by good weather which will prevail in the oilseed producing areas. Production is expected to reach 202 million MT and this will be about 6 million MT higher than the estimated production in 2014. Palm oil production is poised to exceed 61 million MT and again will play a crucial role in the global supply of oils and fats.

Malaysia and Indonesia, the top two palm oil producing countries will continue to contribute to this growth as the combined production from these two countries will be about 85% of the total global palm oil production. Palm oil produced from Malaysia and Indonesia is indeed vital as both these countries will contribute to almost 30% of the total global oils & fats production.

We are now observing the strengthening of palm oil prices despite the recent fall in global crude oil prices. The recent major floods which occurred in Malaysia in December 2014 helped boost prices on a short term as there were concerns about supply shortage. These are among some of the issues that will be highlighted in this paper.

This paper will analyse issues that will affect palm oil price in 2015 such as demand and supply analysis and we will also take into account the influence of the current drop in crude oil price on palm oil price especially in the first half of this year. Demand for palm oil from major consuming countries such as India, China, EU and USA is nevertheless, expected to remain upbeat and we will take these factors into account. The regional analysis on the demand and supply scenarios will be aggregated at the global level to forecast the price, demand and supply balance in 2015.
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