Section 1 : CPO Price Trend:
Impact of US-China Trade War (Round2) on China's Palm Oil Demand
Mr. Cai Neng Bin
He is the General Manager of Shanghai Pansun Company. His roles and responsibilities in the company are analyzing oilseeds and oils and fats market information, with main emphasis given on systematic data analysis and make judgement on market trading pattern. He is also able to gauge the change of medium to long market trends of agricultural products, and provides trading and hedging strategies through capturing price differences arises from logical error within markets, and between different products and months.
The structural change has happened on the supply of China’s oils & fats due to the influence of China-US trade war and African swine fever. The changes in US soybean purchase coupled with weather of soybean planting impact the rhythm of soybean imports by China. At the same time, the African swine fever led to weak demand for soybean meal, and these factors mean that soybean or soybean oil market centred on the cost and supply. The tension in China-Canada relationship leads to the import slump of Canada rapeseed and rapeseed oil. Where the Chinese rapeseed market intend to strike a balance between high profit margin and policy. China palm oil imports mount up thanks to the low price in country of origin. Meanwhile, the spread of price difference between soybean oil and palm oil also driven up the palm oil consumption. The supply-demand balance is expected to depend on the consumption and stock level in the country. Currently, oils & fats trading are largely depend on the supply-demand balance differences among the various oils, which will adjust according to the price difference among each other.
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