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Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations:
Global Oils & Fats Outlook - 2nd Half of 2013
Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Yusof Basiron
TAN SRI DATUK DR. YUSOF BIN BASIRON aged 66, a Malaysian. He is presently holding several important positions which include: i. Chief Executive Officer of Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) ii. Director of Sime Darby Berhad iii. Chairman and Director of CBIP Berhad Apart from holding distinguished corporate positions, he is also involved in other organizations which are: (i) Senior Fellow and Past President of Academy Sciences Malaysia (ASM) (ii) Fellow member of Malaysia Scientific Association (MSA) (iii) Fellow member of Malaysian Oil Scientists' and Technologists' Association (MOSTA) (iv) Fellow member of the Incorporated Society of Planters His notable academic achievements are as follows: i. In 1972, he obtained his Bachelor in Chemical Engineering Degree from the University of Canterbury, New Zealand; ii. In 1974, he obtained his Post-Graduate Degree in Rubber Technology (ANCRT) in the United Kingdom; and iii. In 1976, he obtained his Masters Degree in Engineering specializing in Industrial Management (M.E.) and also in Business Administration (MBA) from the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium. Before he joined Palm Oil Research Institute of Malaysia (PORIM) in 1979, he held the position of Rubber Technologist/Techno-Economist with the Rubber Research Institute (RRI)/Malaysian Rubber Research Development Board (MRRDB). In 1986, he completed his doctorate with a PhD in Applied Economics and Management Science from the University of Stirling, Scotland. He was later appointed as the Director-General of PORIM in 1992. He held the position for 8 years until April 2000 before assuming the role of the Director-General of Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), an organization which existed as a result of a PORIM and Palm Oil Registration and Licensing Authority (PORLA) merger, from 1 May 2000 until 18 January 2006.
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The global oils & fats production in 2013 is forecast to be at 189 million MT compared to the 186 million MT produced in 2012. This would mark an increase of 1.6% in oils and fats production. Global palm oil production for 2013 is forecast at 56 million MT, compared to 53.7 million MT in 2012 reflecting an increase of 4.3%. Malaysia and Indonesia will remain as the top two producers of palm oil, contributing to 84% of the total global palm oil production. The palm oil production from both these countries is crucial as they contribute to almost 30% of the total global oils & fats production.

Price of crude palm oil in the beginning of 2013 was RM2,500/MT and fluctuated between RM2,250 to RM2,500 per MT in the first half of 2013 and reached a peak of RM2,600. Since then, price of crude palm oil has been on the downtrend and settled in the region of RM2,300/MT. Among the reasons for the downward trend was the concern over the high stock levels of palm oil especially in the first quarter of 2013 but the levels have since tapered off and stabilised. Demand and export have been seen strengthening in the latter part of May and June as countries such as India, Middle East, Pakistan and Bangladesh stock up their requirements in anticipation of the festive season.

This paper will analyse issues that will affect palm oil price in 2013 especially in the second half of the year. The regional analysis on the demand and supply scenarios will be aggregated at the global level to forecast the demand and supply balance in the second half of 2013.

We use the Stock Usage Ratio (SUR) as our basis to determine the demand and price forecasts. The SUR is also a useful indicator to measure the amount of surplus in stock that can be carried forward to the next year, thus indicating the supply situation carried forward for the following year.
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