Section 1: CPO Price Trend:
2019 Market Landscape - Will the CPO Price Recover?
Mr. Oscar Tjakra
Oscar Tjakra is the Executive Director, RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness. He is located in Singapore, and focuses on palm oil and grains and oilseeds sector.
Oscar was previously a RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness Analyst with Singapore branch from July 2008 to October 2010 covering various sectors including grains and oilseeds, sugar, cocoa and animal protein.
In his most recent role, he was Senior Vice President of Freight Research with Oldendorff Carriers Singapore, where he led global supply and demand research of the grains & oilseeds sector.
Oscar holds a Master of Science in Applied Finance from Singapore Management University and Bachelor of Engineering (Hons) from Nanyang Technological University.
The world oilseeds supplies have grown steadily in the past decades due to increasing oilseeds planting areas and increasing oilseeds yield. The increase of these oilseeds supplies, excluding oil palm, are driven mainly by increasing global demand for oilseeds meals for the production of animal feeds. As a consequence of this, more oilseeds are crushed for their meals, instead of for their oils in recent years, which adds into increasing availability of global vegetable oils supply.
Assuming normal weather, we expect a continuation of the global palm oil oversupply situation, which will result in higher global inventories in 2019. This is mainly the result of an increase in mature palm oil plantation areas in Indonesia and Malaysia, which will continue to provide downward pressure to prices in 2019. In addition, global soft oil supplies in 2018/19 are still expected to be high, on the back of large soybean, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed crops across major producing countries. Availability of these soft oils will provide competition for palm oil demand.
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