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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend:
Global Soybean Outlook - Special Focus US/China Trade Conflict
Dr. Sathia Varqa

Dr. Sathia Varqa is the owner and co-founder of Palm Oil Analytics (POA), an online publisher of palm oil daily news, price, data and analysis based in Singapore, serving global commodity markets.

POA publishes two daily reports a day covering price assessments analysis of key data and market commentary.

Sathia has been in the commodity information business for over 20 years, and owns POA together with a veteran palm oil broker with over 30 years’ experience.

Sathia previously worked for S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global (previously McGraw-Hill Finance) based in Singapore.

He holds a BA (Business Studies), Master degree in International Trade (Distinction) and a PhD in political economy from The Robert Gordon University, Aberdeen, Scotland.

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Trade tension between the United States and China in the form of escalating import tariffs had been the dominating theme enveloping global trade outlook for most of the 2018 and look set to extend into 2019. Soybeans export from the world largest producer, the U.S; and the world largest buyer, China been at the center of this tension. The mutual dependence of both these countries on the soybean commodity is central to maintaining global supply and demand balance. However since the implementation of the additional 25% tariffs by China on U.S origin beans from July of last year exports slowed down, global ending-stock increased, soybean meal consumption declined and soy complex prices dwindled. However, the expectation of a downgrade in Brazilian soybean crop size against strong domestic demand and the prospect of willingness of the U.S and China to negotiate to resolve the trade issues are offering hope for recovery in prices underpinned by pent-up demand and lower global supply. This paper will explore the above themes with reference to soy complex price outlook in 2019 and its implication to palm complex.
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